Unfortunately, this didn’t clarify things
The “manual KB2999226 installer” is MSU file, which is associated with that wusa.exe - see relevant registry entries at HKEY_CLASSES_ROOT\.msu
and HKEY_CLASSES_ROOT\Microsoft.System.Update.1\shell\open\command
. If you launch it again, you may see a message box telling “it is already installed”, and in the task manager, the running wusa.exe; you even can see full command line used to launch it, if add relevant column to task manager. And that is exactly the same command line used by LO installer.
wusa.exe is “Windows Update Standalone Installer”; it internally uses Windows Update service anyway. If Windows Update is disabled, so that wusa cannot enable it even temporarily, it will fail. That is why LibreOffice installer makes sure to temporary enable WU service (but not start) if it’s disabled. Setting the service to “never start” is not disabling it; so wusa is free to start it when required… and it’s still unclear what happens.